I had a conversation with Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Alexander Mercouris about the possibility of Trump delivering peace in the Middle East and Ukraine. Trump recently posted a video of Professor Sachs criticising the presentation of international conflicts as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. In the video, Professor Sachs also scolded Netanyahu and blamed Israel for America’s wars in the Middle East over the past 30 years (Netanyahu will reportedly not attend Trump’s inauguration). Trump has also recognised that NATO expansionism was the source of the proxy war in Ukraine, and has been vocal about his desire to end the proxy.
These actions give some reason for cautious optimism that peace can be achieved at a time when the world appears to be heading toward major wars. The false narratives that conflict in the world derives from a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism create a dangerous Manichaean worldview. Peace then requires good defeating evil, while compromise and workable peace are derided as appeasement. Anyone contesting the Manichaean worldview can be accused of betraying liberal democratic values. Trump has many flaws, but his greatest strength is his ability to say what he wants and break away from the West’s ideological narratives and Manichaean worldview. By recognising the security interests of rival powers (a big taboo in the West), Trump can also mitigate these concerns as the foundation for any durable peace.
The drivers of perpetual war in the US are not purely ideological. They are also driven by the warped capitalist profit machine.
Which Trump is fully paid into and has zero interest in changing.
So war will go on.
Maybe not by intention, but simply because Trump is simply a charismatic “Joker”, a wild card, but isn’t a reformer and has no holistic agenda that could turn the situation around.
Even a superficial US peace with Russia will still leave the war machine pumping weapons into Poland, Romania, Scandinavia and the Baltics - and war will ensue there
Similarly there is no fundamental capability or financial interest innTrumps admin to stop the drive to war with Iran and China.
So endlessly warring and WW III is still on course. Because Trump is a charismatic and superficial personality but isn’t bringing and ideas for change that can plausibly add up a stable peace and a fundamental reformation and eradication of the machine of war for profit.
I have a very small hope from the facts above, but are also pessimistic because of his words about Panama an Greenland. But more dangerous is the position of other NATO countries that the wars must continue overall.