US-Russia Talks Stall, Escalation Expected
John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
I had the great pleasure of speaking with Professor John J. Mearsheimer and Alexander Mercouris about the stalling of peace negotiations as the US faces resistance from the Europeans and Zelensky. The US will likely increase pressure on Zelensky, and the Europeans can be divided and played against each other. However, the subsequent uncertainty signals to the Russians that any future deal could fall apart quickly. Therefore, Russia have great incentives to seize more territory to ensure Eastern Ukraine cannot be used as a frontline against Russia in the future. The peace talks will likely slow down over the next few weeks, and a massive Russian offensive can be expected. The alternative to a peace agreement will likely be the collapse of the Ukrainian army and the dramatic increase in casualties, which is common at the final stages of a losing war. This will result in a humanitarian disaster and a severely weakened Ukraine that will fuel instability for decades to come.
This discussion sounds remarkably like the so-called ceasefire talks. Russia is and always has been, consistent in its demands; no NATO on its doorstep; a neutral Ukraine; the 4 oblasts are part of the Russian Federation.; an end to sanctions. Until these demands are met. there will be no ceasefire. The latest Putin statement is even more blunt!
This from today's Simplicius:
"The more decisive statement came by way of Putin’s reassurance that Russia has the strategic initiative on every front, and by all reasonable probabilities will “finish off” Ukraine"
It's obvious that the Russians have had enough of the West's duplicity and stalling (read buying for time). It's clear also that the US are using UKEU as a stalking horse, in an obvious collusion between the USNATO and the EUNATO, to put a spanner in the works which has the advantage of the US blaming the EU and the EU blaming the US. The Russians are not fooled by this double act, Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. As always, the Russians deal in real politik, not bullshit.
Reading Diesen's 'Great Power Politics in the Fourth Industrial Revolution'. It is thought provoking, a quality increasingly more difficut to find in books in the USA. The book is much more interesting than discussions about non-existant cease fires. I hope Professor Diesen is still writing and teaching, despite the fact that those in power discourage thinking amongst the masses.