Russian Victory or Political Settlement in Ukraine?
Ambassador Chas Freeman, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
I had a conversation with Alexander Mercouris and Ambassador Chas Freeman, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. Besides being a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Freeman’s career included opening China with Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon in the 1970s and developing the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe.
We discussed the messy world that the Biden Administration is handing over to Trump. There is seemingly a genuine desire to end the proxy war in Ukraine, and Trump may also achieve a ceasefire in Palestine. However, NATO’s escalations in Ukraine to sabotage possible negotiations and the reckless support for HTS in Syria have reduced the possibilities available to Trump. Will the Ukraine War be resolved by a Russian victory or a political settlement?
Putin has made it clear that no political settlement is possible without meeting Russia's legitimate security concerns.
He's made it clear what those concerns are and that he will not settle for less.
The attempts to fob him off with the temporary cessation of hostilities is (A) more MInsk Agreement fluff and nonsense, and (B) transparently intended to wait until he's gone and renew hostilities against his successors who may not have his perspective, insight, ability, nor backbone. IOW, both are delaying tactics and not serious solutions by either design or intent.
It's also reasonably clear to me that he knows all of this, too, and is not going to swallow any of it.
So the conflict will continue until Ukraine and/or US/NATO/EU admit defeat and concede to his demands. Since they are loathe to do so, for obvious reasons (one of which being they cannot afford such a loss of credibility given they're already being tossed out by their own voters) then Russia is obliged to continue taking the territory the hard way until they are forced by reality to concede or enough of them are replaced to change the bloc's strategic posture towards Russia.
Firstly, a huge thank you to Glenn and Mr. Chas Freeman - I am always in awe of your knowledge and listening to you speak makes me feel like my brain cells are regenerating after two decades of Western propaganda :) Correction to Alexander however - Orbán (of Hungary) IS someone who is speaking out for peace. Maybe add Fico to that. Perhaps what he means to say is that no one from Western Europe is speaking for peace, but see, if anyone outside of Western Europe is NO ONE to you, you defined the very problem in attitude and thinking. That said, one thing that certainly has changed with the Ukraine war that Westerners haven’t yet fully comprehended is that the Eastern citizens’ internalisation of Western bullying and contempt has ended. You will no longer enjoy treating us as nobodys and second class citizens - your time in the sun has ended.