'For Europe, a multipolar system entails the US pivoting away from Europe and the continent losing its solidarity and stability. Furthermore, the non-Western world will for the first time in centuries be in a position to demand equal representation.'
Fully agree, Professor, which is one of the reasons why Europe clings to the ideology of megaloliberalism (my version of liberal hegemony with a few differences) so desperately.
'However, the subsequent conflicts can then be seen as a temporary consequence of the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity.'
Again fully agree. The tectonics will be tense until the plates realign, but once they do, the multipolar political ecosystem which we now inhabit should produce a relatively stable balance of powers. Climate change is the biggest and blackest of all black swans, which will cause a great deal of chaos, but direct confrontations between the blocs should be fewer and less violent.
Thank you for your cogent and concise breakdown.
To be honest, I think all systems can produce stability or foment chaos. All orders are built on the twin pillars of power and legitimacy, and a lot depends on how healthy and how strong both of these are. The power of the liberal order has seriously waned relative to others, and its legitimacy has been bulldozed into the ground with Gaza and Israel breaking most every single rule of the rules-based order.
When orders fail, those that continue to believe in them become both too blind and too brave for their own good. Europe embodies this perfectly at present in my view.
Anyway, just some of my waffly thoughts. Thank you once again, Professor Diesen, for this and for your work in general. You bring reason and pragmatism to help fight back against all the ideology and hubris.
In my opinion you and everyone on Glenn’s side of the fence are exactly correct. I agree that climate change will cause disruptions and problems but AI is by far the biggest bull in the china shop.
I took the oppertunity to ask an AI how much power is consumed by an AI quary.
Here is it's answer:
Energy Use Per AI Query
Estimates for energy per AI query vary, but recent analyses suggest a typical ChatGPT-4o query consumes around 0.3 watt-hours (Wh), significantly lower than earlier estimates of 3 Wh. This reduction is due to more efficient models and hardware, such as NVIDIA H100 GPUs, which replaced older A100s.
In comparison:
A Google search uses about 0.3 Wh.
A ChatGPT query uses roughly 10 times more energy than a Google search in many estimates, though newer data suggests this gap may be closing.
However, longer queries—especially those with large document uploads—can consume up to 40 watt-hours, making them far more energy-intensive. For example, generating a 100-word email via ChatGPT-4 is estimated to use 0.14 kWh, equivalent to powering 14 LED bulbs for an hour.
Cheers Kevin. AI will have a huge impact, it's just very hard to gauge and understand what's going to happen with it. But if the worst-case scenarios of the climate catastrophe play out, part of human civilisation will collapse in the next century or two, putting immense pressure on the rest of civilisation. The worst-case scenarios here are easier to understand, and these will make for the single biggest existential event in human history in my view. Anyway, there's no either-or logic at play here. In short, there's a lot coming down the line to destabilise an unstable world, which is all the more reason for us to hope that a new balance of powers forms soon.
China in relation to climate change is pretty fascinating. It spends more on the transition to clean energies than the US, the EU and the UK combined. I wrote a piece on why this is actually.
There’s no doubt that we as a species are in the process of shitting in our own nest. The insatiable appetite of the capitalistic system to continuously increase quarterly profits means that we will continue to extract more resources from the earth than it can replace and pollute more than it can absorb. This points to a collective race to the bottom, tragedy of the commons or moloch in game theory. This is a problem that needs to be solved with well thought out rules and regulations. But if you have studied where we’re headed with the development of AI and it’s exponentially increasing in capabilities you’ll come to realize that unless we get very good leadership very soon and try to make sure it’s aligned it will most likely be the cause of our demise.
I’ve developed a “course” which spells all of this out in detail but thus far what I’ve had to say has fallen on deaf ears.
Another thought relates to the capitalist system, technological advancement, and the overall increase in human well-being and prosperity. As Isaac Asimov said, no one who is intelligent wants to go backward. The capitalist system has been an remarkable vehicle that has lifted millions out of abject poverty. What’s required now is managing this progress in a reasonable and rational way if we are to continue thriving as a species. Unfortunately, collectively, we aren’t doing a very good job.
Good insights. I agree with your analysis. The question still remains: How will The USA deal with China? Containment or cooperation? I am concerned because the USA is in a precarious moment domestically with our economic system rotting from within. We see acts of desperation on the part of the duopoly to try to maintain our hegemonic dominance.
I’m a big fan of John Mearsheimer and I think his theory of offensive realism accurately depicts how the world’s international power dynamic system works.
Offensive realism basically says that if you allow a nation to become a regional hegemon and their hemisphere inevitably, they will venture out and start to engage in military activities in your backyard. Given this fact, according to the logic of the offensive realism’s theory, it would make sense for the United States to keep China contained. The trick is to try to keep China contained while at the same time, not allowing our increasingly heated competition with China to spill over into a hot kinetic war. And in order to achieve that the United States would have to have a great deal of emphasis and skill on diplomacy and the use of soft power.
Unfortunately, at the end of the day, the world of international power dynamics is not a nice place and the players need to try t use their skills to prevent a heated competition from spilling over into a war.
Yes, I agree. Prof Mearsheimer’s book “ The tragedy of great power politics “ is a masterful work on how countries who become hegemonic powers will defend their national security because the system in of itself is anarchic. Meaning there is no authority above the state powers to prevent military, economic or proxy conflicts from happening. China unlike former Soviet Russia is a multimodal multidimensional peer competitor of the USA. Pre WW1 Germany was a multidimensional peer competitor of the USA and UK and France. However, we didn’t have nuclear weapons or mass globalization and a massive techno structure. The world we currently live in is unique. The last time China had engaged in a military operation was 1979 with Vietnam over Cambodia.
Yes, I agree. It’s my opinion that once one understands the theory of offensive realism determining the best course of action with regard to the US’s foreign policy is fairly simple. And once one understands that concept it’s easy to extrapolate that thought process to be able to determine the best course of action for everything.
A very interesting discussion and many if not all the points are very valid. I feel that there is an elephant in the room that was not considered. As all this present mess is a banking caused mess. The present and probably near future conflicts are to help prop-up the failing dollar, the slow asset stripping of Europe and the UK, probably all the G7 if allowed by the brought governments. The insistence that expensive weapons should be bought to fight a war that the populations do not want against a country that is no threat. To buy expensive gas as the only cheap form was terminated, which will cripple industries which now get sold and asset stripped. To allow too much migration to create conflict, which will allow the introduction of mass surveillance, digital CBDCs, bio-metric ID, thereby handing total control to the proposed next set of rulers. In the mean time we all get slowly boiled!
It’s clear to me that during the unipolar moment the US should have largely minded its own business, kept the sea lanes open for commerce and lead by example. If the US had done that the world would be in a much better place than it is now.
Instead, the US tried to remake the world in its image at the end of a gunpoint and as John Mearsheimer states, in those instances nationalism trumps liberalism at every turn. And in the process, the pursuit of liberalism abroad tends to hurt liberalism at home - and that’s what we’re seeing now. When one understands how things work it’s all very simple. This is why we should be paying attention to the roots of these problems or otherwise we’ll be condemned to making the same mistakes in the future.
And this my friend is why you and the rest of the talking heads should be listening to what I have to say.
It remains to be seen how the unipolal club deals with the multipolar situation. And how they continue to mess with the minds of their own citizens to stack them against the rest of the world. I can only hope that the multipolar intellect is aware that European citizens are not the same as the EU clown Ursula.
I agree with your assumptions, however we see a development in direction of a new unipolar structure, fuled by non western powers demand for water and food. China dig deep into african farm lands with no or little benefir for the poor land owners. China is far from selfsustained in food and have little or few hesitations in using their eoconomical power to mute african leaders for their own benefit. This is much like the western colony powers ruled the scene few years ago, but i does not show a more beatiful face. Russia also, with few limits to it`s greed, has owed a harsh reputation in several areas, but is now being kicked out from most african countries. Brics will be dominated by the two large eoconomie Russia and China, which bring with them the the ideaology shared by North Korea and Iran. This will tilt the power base in favour of autocratic powers.
Russian influence on the elections in Moldova was obvious. Now the cheating has been documented and we bring here the amusing story of a dictatorship's methods:
Putin plan revealed: "The goal is clear"
An undercover investigation by the BBC reveals a Russian-funded network that is actively trying to undermine Moldova's parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Reporters from the British broadcaster uncovered that the network, with links to sanctioned Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, is paying to spread pro-Russian propaganda and fake news to Moldovans. Shor has fled to Moscow, where he lives in exile under Vladimir Putin's protection.
The BBC uncovers that Shor and his allies are staging illegal polls and spreading shocking disinformation to weaken President Maia Sandu's pro-EU party.
The BBC reveals an extensive Russian plan to influence the election in Putin's favor. Bloomberg has gained access to documents that reveal the strategy. It was completed this spring and is coordinated directly from the Kremlin.
The Influence Campaign: From Fake News to Violent Protests
The plan includes a number of manipulation methods. The BBC's investigation shows that the network is actively using tools such as ChatGPT to produce content. Since January, they have spread thousands of videos via at least 90 TikTok accounts, which, according to the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), collectively have over 55 million views and 2.2 million likes
The BBC's undercover journalist was instructed to publish baseless allegations that the Sandu government is planning electoral fraud, that EU membership requires changing "sexual orientation" to LGBT, and that President Sandu is facilitating child trafficking. Instructions encouraged participants to share phrases such as "Sandu's regime uses children as living currency" and "Sandu and PAS are involved in human trafficking."
Bloomberg documents additionally reveal that Russia plans to recruit Moldovans abroad to vote at polling stations in the EU and other countries. The aim is to create violent provocations during the election and arrange protests afterwards, including by recruiting young men from sports clubs and criminal networks.
The Kremlin pays for votes
The funding for these operations is extensive. The BBC uncovered that the payments are channeled through a network with links to the oligarch Ilan Shor.
Money for the network was sent from Promsviazbank (PSB), a sanctioned Russian state-owned bank. A network coordinator was filmed by the BBC asking for money from Moscow for "my people's salaries".
The oligarch Ilan Shor is sanctioned by the US for "the Kremlin's malicious influence operations."
Moldova's police chief, Viorel Cernauteanu, states to the BBC that "In 2024, the focus of Ilan Shor's campaign was money. This year, the focus is disinformation."
Moldovan authorities are working to stop the influence attempts. The police have asked to block 443 TikTok channels in the last month, and have also carried out several raids.
The small country is sandwiched between war-torn Ukraine and the EU country Romania. The election comes less than a year after Moldovans narrowly voted yes to EU membership.
The diaspora in the line of fire
Over one million Moldovans live abroad. They constitute a powerful counterweight to the 2.4 million who still live in the country. The diaspora secured Sandus' re-election last year. A record 300,000 voted in the second round and accounted for almost a fifth of all votes.
The pro-Russian opposition has taken note of the influence of the diaspora. Former president Igor Dodon of the Socialist Party now calls them "dear friends" on social media, writes Yahoo.
Previously, he dismissed them as "a parallel electorate". Now he is calling for massive participation to prevent "ambassadors from voting instead of you".
Sandu has traveled around European countries to urge the diaspora to show "integrity and courage" at the polls. Her party has also created a separate Facebook page for Moldovans abroad.
Sandu's fight against the Kremlin
Moldova applied for EU membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country started membership negotiations last year.
"The Kremlin's goal is clear: to take over Moldova through the ballot box, use us against Ukraine and make us a launching pad for hybrid attacks against the EU," Sandu told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, adding:
"That is why this election is so important. By defending it, we are not only protecting Moldova, but also regional security and stability said Sandu.
Glenn this is a masterful skillful analysis of great power politics. Condensed and jam packed with nuanced detailed explanation of the anarchical system we live in. You and Prof Mearsheimer are par excellence. I read Prof Mearsheimer’s the tragedy of great power politics
'For Europe, a multipolar system entails the US pivoting away from Europe and the continent losing its solidarity and stability. Furthermore, the non-Western world will for the first time in centuries be in a position to demand equal representation.'
Fully agree, Professor, which is one of the reasons why Europe clings to the ideology of megaloliberalism (my version of liberal hegemony with a few differences) so desperately.
'However, the subsequent conflicts can then be seen as a temporary consequence of the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity.'
Again fully agree. The tectonics will be tense until the plates realign, but once they do, the multipolar political ecosystem which we now inhabit should produce a relatively stable balance of powers. Climate change is the biggest and blackest of all black swans, which will cause a great deal of chaos, but direct confrontations between the blocs should be fewer and less violent.
Thank you for your cogent and concise breakdown.
To be honest, I think all systems can produce stability or foment chaos. All orders are built on the twin pillars of power and legitimacy, and a lot depends on how healthy and how strong both of these are. The power of the liberal order has seriously waned relative to others, and its legitimacy has been bulldozed into the ground with Gaza and Israel breaking most every single rule of the rules-based order.
When orders fail, those that continue to believe in them become both too blind and too brave for their own good. Europe embodies this perfectly at present in my view.
Anyway, just some of my waffly thoughts. Thank you once again, Professor Diesen, for this and for your work in general. You bring reason and pragmatism to help fight back against all the ideology and hubris.
In my opinion you and everyone on Glenn’s side of the fence are exactly correct. I agree that climate change will cause disruptions and problems but AI is by far the biggest bull in the china shop.
I took the oppertunity to ask an AI how much power is consumed by an AI quary.
Here is it's answer:
Energy Use Per AI Query
Estimates for energy per AI query vary, but recent analyses suggest a typical ChatGPT-4o query consumes around 0.3 watt-hours (Wh), significantly lower than earlier estimates of 3 Wh. This reduction is due to more efficient models and hardware, such as NVIDIA H100 GPUs, which replaced older A100s.
In comparison:
A Google search uses about 0.3 Wh.
A ChatGPT query uses roughly 10 times more energy than a Google search in many estimates, though newer data suggests this gap may be closing.
However, longer queries—especially those with large document uploads—can consume up to 40 watt-hours, making them far more energy-intensive. For example, generating a 100-word email via ChatGPT-4 is estimated to use 0.14 kWh, equivalent to powering 14 LED bulbs for an hour.
Cheers Kevin. AI will have a huge impact, it's just very hard to gauge and understand what's going to happen with it. But if the worst-case scenarios of the climate catastrophe play out, part of human civilisation will collapse in the next century or two, putting immense pressure on the rest of civilisation. The worst-case scenarios here are easier to understand, and these will make for the single biggest existential event in human history in my view. Anyway, there's no either-or logic at play here. In short, there's a lot coming down the line to destabilise an unstable world, which is all the more reason for us to hope that a new balance of powers forms soon.
China in relation to climate change is pretty fascinating. It spends more on the transition to clean energies than the US, the EU and the UK combined. I wrote a piece on why this is actually.
There’s no doubt that we as a species are in the process of shitting in our own nest. The insatiable appetite of the capitalistic system to continuously increase quarterly profits means that we will continue to extract more resources from the earth than it can replace and pollute more than it can absorb. This points to a collective race to the bottom, tragedy of the commons or moloch in game theory. This is a problem that needs to be solved with well thought out rules and regulations. But if you have studied where we’re headed with the development of AI and it’s exponentially increasing in capabilities you’ll come to realize that unless we get very good leadership very soon and try to make sure it’s aligned it will most likely be the cause of our demise.
I’ve developed a “course” which spells all of this out in detail but thus far what I’ve had to say has fallen on deaf ears.
Another thought relates to the capitalist system, technological advancement, and the overall increase in human well-being and prosperity. As Isaac Asimov said, no one who is intelligent wants to go backward. The capitalist system has been an remarkable vehicle that has lifted millions out of abject poverty. What’s required now is managing this progress in a reasonable and rational way if we are to continue thriving as a species. Unfortunately, collectively, we aren’t doing a very good job.
This relates to AI as well…
Good insights. I agree with your analysis. The question still remains: How will The USA deal with China? Containment or cooperation? I am concerned because the USA is in a precarious moment domestically with our economic system rotting from within. We see acts of desperation on the part of the duopoly to try to maintain our hegemonic dominance.
I’m a big fan of John Mearsheimer and I think his theory of offensive realism accurately depicts how the world’s international power dynamic system works.
Offensive realism basically says that if you allow a nation to become a regional hegemon and their hemisphere inevitably, they will venture out and start to engage in military activities in your backyard. Given this fact, according to the logic of the offensive realism’s theory, it would make sense for the United States to keep China contained. The trick is to try to keep China contained while at the same time, not allowing our increasingly heated competition with China to spill over into a hot kinetic war. And in order to achieve that the United States would have to have a great deal of emphasis and skill on diplomacy and the use of soft power.
Unfortunately, at the end of the day, the world of international power dynamics is not a nice place and the players need to try t use their skills to prevent a heated competition from spilling over into a war.
Yes, I agree. Prof Mearsheimer’s book “ The tragedy of great power politics “ is a masterful work on how countries who become hegemonic powers will defend their national security because the system in of itself is anarchic. Meaning there is no authority above the state powers to prevent military, economic or proxy conflicts from happening. China unlike former Soviet Russia is a multimodal multidimensional peer competitor of the USA. Pre WW1 Germany was a multidimensional peer competitor of the USA and UK and France. However, we didn’t have nuclear weapons or mass globalization and a massive techno structure. The world we currently live in is unique. The last time China had engaged in a military operation was 1979 with Vietnam over Cambodia.
Yes, I agree. It’s my opinion that once one understands the theory of offensive realism determining the best course of action with regard to the US’s foreign policy is fairly simple. And once one understands that concept it’s easy to extrapolate that thought process to be able to determine the best course of action for everything.
A very interesting discussion and many if not all the points are very valid. I feel that there is an elephant in the room that was not considered. As all this present mess is a banking caused mess. The present and probably near future conflicts are to help prop-up the failing dollar, the slow asset stripping of Europe and the UK, probably all the G7 if allowed by the brought governments. The insistence that expensive weapons should be bought to fight a war that the populations do not want against a country that is no threat. To buy expensive gas as the only cheap form was terminated, which will cripple industries which now get sold and asset stripped. To allow too much migration to create conflict, which will allow the introduction of mass surveillance, digital CBDCs, bio-metric ID, thereby handing total control to the proposed next set of rulers. In the mean time we all get slowly boiled!
It’s clear to me that during the unipolar moment the US should have largely minded its own business, kept the sea lanes open for commerce and lead by example. If the US had done that the world would be in a much better place than it is now.
Instead, the US tried to remake the world in its image at the end of a gunpoint and as John Mearsheimer states, in those instances nationalism trumps liberalism at every turn. And in the process, the pursuit of liberalism abroad tends to hurt liberalism at home - and that’s what we’re seeing now. When one understands how things work it’s all very simple. This is why we should be paying attention to the roots of these problems or otherwise we’ll be condemned to making the same mistakes in the future.
And this my friend is why you and the rest of the talking heads should be listening to what I have to say.
„nationalism trumps liberalism“ neat 😎
wer‘e living neither in unipolarity nor multipolarity but rather manipularity. nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
It remains to be seen how the unipolal club deals with the multipolar situation. And how they continue to mess with the minds of their own citizens to stack them against the rest of the world. I can only hope that the multipolar intellect is aware that European citizens are not the same as the EU clown Ursula.
I agree with your assumptions, however we see a development in direction of a new unipolar structure, fuled by non western powers demand for water and food. China dig deep into african farm lands with no or little benefir for the poor land owners. China is far from selfsustained in food and have little or few hesitations in using their eoconomical power to mute african leaders for their own benefit. This is much like the western colony powers ruled the scene few years ago, but i does not show a more beatiful face. Russia also, with few limits to it`s greed, has owed a harsh reputation in several areas, but is now being kicked out from most african countries. Brics will be dominated by the two large eoconomie Russia and China, which bring with them the the ideaology shared by North Korea and Iran. This will tilt the power base in favour of autocratic powers.
Russian influence on the elections in Moldova was obvious. Now the cheating has been documented and we bring here the amusing story of a dictatorship's methods:
Putin plan revealed: "The goal is clear"
An undercover investigation by the BBC reveals a Russian-funded network that is actively trying to undermine Moldova's parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Reporters from the British broadcaster uncovered that the network, with links to sanctioned Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, is paying to spread pro-Russian propaganda and fake news to Moldovans. Shor has fled to Moscow, where he lives in exile under Vladimir Putin's protection.
The BBC uncovers that Shor and his allies are staging illegal polls and spreading shocking disinformation to weaken President Maia Sandu's pro-EU party.
The BBC reveals an extensive Russian plan to influence the election in Putin's favor. Bloomberg has gained access to documents that reveal the strategy. It was completed this spring and is coordinated directly from the Kremlin.
The Influence Campaign: From Fake News to Violent Protests
The plan includes a number of manipulation methods. The BBC's investigation shows that the network is actively using tools such as ChatGPT to produce content. Since January, they have spread thousands of videos via at least 90 TikTok accounts, which, according to the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), collectively have over 55 million views and 2.2 million likes
The BBC's undercover journalist was instructed to publish baseless allegations that the Sandu government is planning electoral fraud, that EU membership requires changing "sexual orientation" to LGBT, and that President Sandu is facilitating child trafficking. Instructions encouraged participants to share phrases such as "Sandu's regime uses children as living currency" and "Sandu and PAS are involved in human trafficking."
Bloomberg documents additionally reveal that Russia plans to recruit Moldovans abroad to vote at polling stations in the EU and other countries. The aim is to create violent provocations during the election and arrange protests afterwards, including by recruiting young men from sports clubs and criminal networks.
The Kremlin pays for votes
The funding for these operations is extensive. The BBC uncovered that the payments are channeled through a network with links to the oligarch Ilan Shor.
Money for the network was sent from Promsviazbank (PSB), a sanctioned Russian state-owned bank. A network coordinator was filmed by the BBC asking for money from Moscow for "my people's salaries".
The oligarch Ilan Shor is sanctioned by the US for "the Kremlin's malicious influence operations."
Moldova's police chief, Viorel Cernauteanu, states to the BBC that "In 2024, the focus of Ilan Shor's campaign was money. This year, the focus is disinformation."
Moldovan authorities are working to stop the influence attempts. The police have asked to block 443 TikTok channels in the last month, and have also carried out several raids.
The small country is sandwiched between war-torn Ukraine and the EU country Romania. The election comes less than a year after Moldovans narrowly voted yes to EU membership.
The diaspora in the line of fire
Over one million Moldovans live abroad. They constitute a powerful counterweight to the 2.4 million who still live in the country. The diaspora secured Sandus' re-election last year. A record 300,000 voted in the second round and accounted for almost a fifth of all votes.
The pro-Russian opposition has taken note of the influence of the diaspora. Former president Igor Dodon of the Socialist Party now calls them "dear friends" on social media, writes Yahoo.
Previously, he dismissed them as "a parallel electorate". Now he is calling for massive participation to prevent "ambassadors from voting instead of you".
Sandu has traveled around European countries to urge the diaspora to show "integrity and courage" at the polls. Her party has also created a separate Facebook page for Moldovans abroad.
Sandu's fight against the Kremlin
Moldova applied for EU membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country started membership negotiations last year.
"The Kremlin's goal is clear: to take over Moldova through the ballot box, use us against Ukraine and make us a launching pad for hybrid attacks against the EU," Sandu told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, adding:
"That is why this election is so important. By defending it, we are not only protecting Moldova, but also regional security and stability said Sandu.
Glenn this is a masterful skillful analysis of great power politics. Condensed and jam packed with nuanced detailed explanation of the anarchical system we live in. You and Prof Mearsheimer are par excellence. I read Prof Mearsheimer’s the tragedy of great power politics