Ukraine and Israel headed for defeat
John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
I had the pleasure to discuss the developments in Ukraine and the Middle East with Professor John Mearsheimer and Alexander Mercouris.
The Ukraine War appears to be entering the final stages as Ukrainian frontlines continue to collapse. The lack of manpower and weapons enables Russia to push through the frontlines with greater ease, which results in the disruption of supply lines and encirclement of large groups of Ukrainian soldiers. As expected in the final stages of a war, the casualties of the losing side increase drastically. As the military unravels, it appears that Zelensky is becoming increasingly desperate as evidenced by his talk of nuclear weapons and the strange “victory plan”.
When will negotiations start? The West has begun to change the narrative of the war to prepare the public for negotiations after almost three years of pushing false information about attrition rates and pretending that NATO and Ukraine were winning. Mearsheimer notes that we would have negotiated a long time ago if our soldiers were dying in horrific numbers. However, as NATO is fighting with Ukrainians, there seems to be no rush to end the war as the Russians can be bled further and the US would like to extend the war until the end of the US presidential elections. The problem is that as Russia’s position continues to strengthen vis-a-vis NATO, Russia’s conditions in peace negotiations will become much tougher. It will become difficult and humiliating to accept Russia’s demand to stop NATO expansion, end NATO presence in Ukraine, and accept painful territorial concessions.
Israel has similarly got itself in deep trouble by failing to reach mutually acceptable settlements with its neighbours. A durable peace based on a mutually compromise has previously been avoided by instead perpetuating the weakness of neighbours with the strategy to “mow the grass” every few years by attacking military and civilian targets. Israel sees an opportunity now to also attack Iran as Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened. However, this neglects that Israel has also overstretched itself militarily and is not capable of fighting Iran alone. Furthermore, a prolonged war is devastating Israel’s economy and its political ties with the wider world. There is no path to a military victory and no political appetite for political solutions, thus the goal appears to be pulling the US into a wider regional war.
The people claiming to “support” Ukraine and Israel have for years taken maximalist positions by rejecting a workable peace and supporting escalation. The consequence has become the current all-or-nothing situation that will likely devastate both states.
The Duran: https://rumble.com/v5jrvjf-ukraine-and-israel-on-the-path-to-defeat-john-mearsheimer-alexander-mercour.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
Agree. Many of us have known that Ukraine = USA EU NATO will lose their proxy war against Russia. If USA UK not have spoiled the peace agreement in Istanbul in 2022 there would not have been a war But they want a war against Russia because they thought they could weaken and defeat Russia A very stupid idea. Instead they have wasted many 100 billion of dollars and probably 1 million people are killed many seriously wounded and several million Ukraines have escaped and will not come back. The country is destroyed and look like Europe after WW 2. EUs economy are really bad and the national armies in almost all EU countries are totally useless and their weapon and ammunition depots are empty Denmark can’t even afford ammunition for their troops and they don’t have money enough to participate in NATO exercises. Even Germany have become poor and the second year they are in recession with negative growth France and UKs debt have passed 120% of their BNP long time ago. And their BNP are becoming less and less While the BRICS nations are growing Israel have for 78 years been in conflict with all their neighbors and now it have escalated to the worst crisis ever and the state Israel have become a terror regime who commit genocide and have killed nearly 50.000 people Mostly women and children and the have totally destroyed Gaza and now they also attack Lebanon and Iran. Both wars have in common that it is USA who are responsible for them and support them with money and weapons Without USAs involvement there would not be wars but both Ukraine and Israel was forced to let their diplomats negotiate a solution But diplomacy are non existent in USA. They only use threats sanctions and wars and will do everything to keep their military industry corruption and money laundering machine running. The world will not be the same when these wars are over. And the losers are USA and EU
Looking forward to your article on ideology trumping realism (reality and self interest, actually) among the elites. And a paradoxically liberal but universalist and maximalist ideology at that.