Trump's threats will not work on Russia

Jackson Hinkle interviews Prof. Glenn Diesen

I was interviewed on 28 January 2025 by Jackson Hinkle on Legitimate Targets about Trump’s approach toward Russia.

Trump’s desire to end the Ukraine War was approached with his usual maximum pressure tactics to push through his demands. Trump appears to overestimate his bargaining position as he has been fed misinformed about the basic facts of the war. Trump’s claim that a million Russian soldiers have been killed makes no sense as the total number of Russian casualties (killed and injured) would then be about 3-4 million. The claim that Russia has lost more soldiers than Ukraine is also absurd as Russia has vastly more artillery, airpower and drones - which inflicts the overwhelming majority of casualties. The media narrative of low Ukrainian casualties versus high Russian casualties is designed to manufacture consent and public support for a long war. If Trump believes that Russia is in a weaker position than it actually is, he will overestimate what can be achieved by pressure and threats.

Even if Russia had been in a weaker position, it would climb further up the escalation ladder rather than be forced into a bad deal as NATO’s incursion into Ukraine is considered to be an existential threat. Trump’s threats of more sanctions are also hollow as there is hardly any trade left between Russia and the US, and further pressure will only intensify Russia’s drift toward China. For the past 30 years, Russia has expressed its resentment that the West replaced diplomacy with the language of ultimatums and threats to extract unilateral concessions. A more constructive approach by Trump would be to explore competing security concerns to mitigate the zero-sum security competition that has collapsed the pan-European security architecture, brought untold misery to a devastated Ukraine, and pushed NATO and Russia close to nuclear war.