This analysis is virtually the same as after the first Oreshnik attack - completely inconclusive. They were able to accurately assess the impact velocity of the warheads at Yuzhmash, as there was a solid overcast cloud layer, the height of which was well known. By timing the cloud break to impact, it was simple math. Prof Postol assumed iron warheads as part of his mass calculations, but there are far more dense compounds, such as depleted uranium, or complex metal alloys, with which the Russians have enormous expertise. There’s also the plasma field generated by the hypersonic re-entry, which makes radar detection very difficult. Sorry, but this is not a comprehensive analysis by Prof “Postulate”…
Does he really believe that the Russians are spending several hundred thousand dollars to transport a useless weapon over 1000 km, being unable to destroy even a small house?
The projectiles are definitely made of a high-yield material that won't destroy itself on impact. The Russian scientists aren't stupid; they're using that type of material that will penetrate and transfer all the kinetic energy to the ground.
I think it makes sense only on a gathering of "boots" and tech structures, when they are preparing to do something important. Then, it will be a valuable tool to take them out or at least confuse and hurt them enough to stop them in action.
I would follow Andrei Martyanov in this (regardless of the argument Martyanov and Postol sadly had one year ago) when he suggests Oreshniks would destroy NATO troops e.g. while they are trying to prepare in the assembly area for attack.
Several commenting channels said that it seems there is a dense blockade of pictures about the impact (or both), and it hits all media and channels that can be influenced by the western intelligence, administrations, or military.
And this might give the impression that the impact was very serious.
To me, all the quotes by European national governments like Merz, within 2 weeks from the attack, are as interesting as all that physics.
E.g. Merz suddenly said something like Russia is a European country, we have to settle this conflict somehow...
I'm worried about Iran though, and I am focusing on the inner struggle, not activism from Israel etc. towards a color revolution.
It is the competition between science and religious dogma. We have that of course in the "judeo-christian" political universe as well, craving for total control, wanting to accelerate eschatology.
BRICS and in particular, China, they have the role of mediating between these forces, and the losers are both: Those who override science with ideology, creating epistemic breakdown, and those who think the populus does not need tradition and a metaphysical concept of order. It has to be in harmony, which should be the competence that is created by thousands of years of Chinese philosophies. We have to study that, everyone in their capacity that they have.
However to challenge the idea of order in the sense "which kind" here a machine-translation of an interview with a genuine leftwing activist from Iran by German leftwing paper JUNGE WELT (which is regarded as threatening Germany with its 20k subscribers and thus put under surveillance officially by the German FBI).
One need not agree or may well have doubts over the arguments presented. One of my issues is that too much sounds like wishful thinking and classic Anarchist lingo devoid of understanding how the population at large may truly think. But then, I am not in Iran. And speaking about a movement and political ideas is always a different thing than acting along those lines. So a spokesperson always has a thankless job.
"We want to confront the dictatorship and US imperialism."
Causes, composition, and perspectives of the protest movement in Iran. A conversation with Navid Shomali
One channel said that the Oreshnik type may have a purpose to trigger interceptors, and a couple of them would clean up the field, so that a very different weapon may follow in seconds, that could be intercepted, if the interceptors were still available in numbers.
Hey Glenn, can you get Theodore Postol back to talk about the impossibility of the so called Golden Dome "Missile Defense" program pushed by the tech bros and which Trump buys. $25 billion has been authorized by Congress as a "start up" but nobody knows what the plan is to use the money, etc.
Is it possible that the missile debris was never truly recovered?
The images of alleged debris used I would not regard as evidence or proof for anything. In fact the opposite.
If satellite images over Yuzmash were strictly censored/blocked by the US - which would be to be expected - then everything shown in public would be part of a diversion'/disinformation/PR. And to rely on those for analysis makes little sense.
Any feasible kinetic energy is negligible compared to a nuclear blast. The latter is up to 0.1% of m*c^2 for fission and up to 1% of m*c^2 for fusion; for comparison, approximately 30% of m*c^2 when matter falls onto a black hole. The usage of Oreshnik is likely a warning, while its main application is a hard-to-intercept nuclear strike. Hopefully it will never be used in such capacity.
Its good to have this explained. Now we can see how the msm exaggerats it for fear. And in other places they play it down as a way of propaganda of russian weakness.
Thank you for explaining the physics behind this ballistic missile. For me it is hard to believe that the photos of the Dnipro impact assessment show the building that had been hit by the Oreshnik. Looks more like a (small) drone had hit the house. Because the photos contradict Prof. Postols drawings showing that each submunition would create a crater of 2 ...4 m in diameter, while at the same time lifting the surface in some distance, so that a buliding like this one inevitably would have collapsed from the shockwave in the surface. Here we see broken windows and a fridge with the door open ...To me it seems plausible, that this "evidence" is part of the Ukrainian effort to downplay the Oreshnik impact.
This analysis is virtually the same as after the first Oreshnik attack - completely inconclusive. They were able to accurately assess the impact velocity of the warheads at Yuzhmash, as there was a solid overcast cloud layer, the height of which was well known. By timing the cloud break to impact, it was simple math. Prof Postol assumed iron warheads as part of his mass calculations, but there are far more dense compounds, such as depleted uranium, or complex metal alloys, with which the Russians have enormous expertise. There’s also the plasma field generated by the hypersonic re-entry, which makes radar detection very difficult. Sorry, but this is not a comprehensive analysis by Prof “Postulate”…
Does he really believe that the Russians are spending several hundred thousand dollars to transport a useless weapon over 1000 km, being unable to destroy even a small house?
The projectiles are definitely made of a high-yield material that won't destroy itself on impact. The Russian scientists aren't stupid; they're using that type of material that will penetrate and transfer all the kinetic energy to the ground.
Brilliant, very useful.
As a physicist, I get it re penetration depth and incidence angle, crucial points.
My question: What about the Oreshnik efficacy against concentrations of troupes and vehicles not in a building, but on a front line or on a road?
BTW: When Ted Postol make a definitive statement about missile defense, believe him, he is the top public expert.
I think it makes sense only on a gathering of "boots" and tech structures, when they are preparing to do something important. Then, it will be a valuable tool to take them out or at least confuse and hurt them enough to stop them in action.
I would follow Andrei Martyanov in this (regardless of the argument Martyanov and Postol sadly had one year ago) when he suggests Oreshniks would destroy NATO troops e.g. while they are trying to prepare in the assembly area for attack.
No battle damage assessment from the first Oreshnik strike yet? Why would the Ukrainians *not* show the underground Yuzhmash facility unless it was heavily damaged. Even existing satellite photos are very suspect. https://en.topwar.ru/254695-opublikovannye-eka-snimki-juzhmasha-posle-prileta-oreshnika-vyzvali-somnenija-v-ih-podlinnosti.html
Several commenting channels said that it seems there is a dense blockade of pictures about the impact (or both), and it hits all media and channels that can be influenced by the western intelligence, administrations, or military.
And this might give the impression that the impact was very serious.
To me, all the quotes by European national governments like Merz, within 2 weeks from the attack, are as interesting as all that physics.
E.g. Merz suddenly said something like Russia is a European country, we have to settle this conflict somehow...
Which makes the mocking of Oreshnik by a Jeffrey Lewis after the Yuzmash attack ever more unprofessional. I do not understand these people.
Even Germans after 1945 when they had to accept their failure with the nuke admitted to the brilliance of their Allied counterparts.
But no: Because Putin=Hitler anything the RUs accomplish, even if its undeniable scientific, by design is smeared.
I'm worried about Iran though, and I am focusing on the inner struggle, not activism from Israel etc. towards a color revolution.
It is the competition between science and religious dogma. We have that of course in the "judeo-christian" political universe as well, craving for total control, wanting to accelerate eschatology.
BRICS and in particular, China, they have the role of mediating between these forces, and the losers are both: Those who override science with ideology, creating epistemic breakdown, and those who think the populus does not need tradition and a metaphysical concept of order. It has to be in harmony, which should be the competence that is created by thousands of years of Chinese philosophies. We have to study that, everyone in their capacity that they have.
"epistemic breakdown" is a core issue.
However to challenge the idea of order in the sense "which kind" here a machine-translation of an interview with a genuine leftwing activist from Iran by German leftwing paper JUNGE WELT (which is regarded as threatening Germany with its 20k subscribers and thus put under surveillance officially by the German FBI).
One need not agree or may well have doubts over the arguments presented. One of my issues is that too much sounds like wishful thinking and classic Anarchist lingo devoid of understanding how the population at large may truly think. But then, I am not in Iran. And speaking about a movement and political ideas is always a different thing than acting along those lines. So a spokesperson always has a thankless job.
"We want to confront the dictatorship and US imperialism."
Causes, composition, and perspectives of the protest movement in Iran. A conversation with Navid Shomali
https://archive.is/VE6GH
I guess Shomali would however agree with you final point.
One channel said that the Oreshnik type may have a purpose to trigger interceptors, and a couple of them would clean up the field, so that a very different weapon may follow in seconds, that could be intercepted, if the interceptors were still available in numbers.
Hey Glenn, can you get Theodore Postol back to talk about the impossibility of the so called Golden Dome "Missile Defense" program pushed by the tech bros and which Trump buys. $25 billion has been authorized by Congress as a "start up" but nobody knows what the plan is to use the money, etc.
Is it possible that the missile debris was never truly recovered?
The images of alleged debris used I would not regard as evidence or proof for anything. In fact the opposite.
If satellite images over Yuzmash were strictly censored/blocked by the US - which would be to be expected - then everything shown in public would be part of a diversion'/disinformation/PR. And to rely on those for analysis makes little sense.
Any feasible kinetic energy is negligible compared to a nuclear blast. The latter is up to 0.1% of m*c^2 for fission and up to 1% of m*c^2 for fusion; for comparison, approximately 30% of m*c^2 when matter falls onto a black hole. The usage of Oreshnik is likely a warning, while its main application is a hard-to-intercept nuclear strike. Hopefully it will never be used in such capacity.
Its good to have this explained. Now we can see how the msm exaggerats it for fear. And in other places they play it down as a way of propaganda of russian weakness.
Thank you for explaining the physics behind this ballistic missile. For me it is hard to believe that the photos of the Dnipro impact assessment show the building that had been hit by the Oreshnik. Looks more like a (small) drone had hit the house. Because the photos contradict Prof. Postols drawings showing that each submunition would create a crater of 2 ...4 m in diameter, while at the same time lifting the surface in some distance, so that a buliding like this one inevitably would have collapsed from the shockwave in the surface. Here we see broken windows and a fridge with the door open ...To me it seems plausible, that this "evidence" is part of the Ukrainian effort to downplay the Oreshnik impact.
Burning a hole instead of punching one. It still works for depth, maybe better.
Why have a Power Point presentation that is then read?
Would you prefer he haf used a 500 watt overhead projector with a loud fan?