The Ukraine War is Coming to an End - What Happens Next?
Prof. Glenn Diesen interviewed by Cyrus Janssen
I was interviewed by Cyrus Jansson on 30.01.2025 about the end of the war in Ukraine and what to expect. Recognising that the media narratives over the past three years have been designed to mobilise public support for a long war is important. People have been led to believe that recognising the strength of Russia, the horrific casualty rates by Ukraine, and the ineffectiveness of sanctions is “anti-Ukrainian” by threatening to reduce Western support for the war.
The reality is that the Ukrainian army has suffered huge losses and total collapse is now unavoidable. NATO is out of weapons, Ukraine is out of manpower, the wider world is deepening ties with Russia, and the Western political support for Ukraine is falling fast. The war will either end with a Russian victory on the battlefield or very unfavourable terms for Ukraine and NATO in a negotiated settlement. Former allies of Zelensky in Ukraine predict his fall, and that Zelensky and his “military recruiters” will be held accountable by the Ukrainians when it all falls apart. In the final weeks, Zelensky will grow increasingly desperate and can do something reckless, while the army will lose morale and look for alternatives.
As someone who was involved in the insolvency business at one stage, the Ukraine situation seems to me to have parallels. On the surface things might appear stressed and there are various recovery plans, but then suddenly there is a crisis and a few weeks later the thing is in a free fall collapse. And avoiding this latter scenario is what I think the Europeans are up to, by continuing to extend and pretend in the hope that something - anything - will turn up.
The Trump Team have not only signalled but said in no uncertain terms that the USA is walking away from this fubar and if Ukraine and Europe want to continue the fight then it is at their risk and cost - no article 5, no money, no weapons, no troops. Europe is out of money, troops, and weapons. But not hot air.
Any policy of continuing to fight pre-supposes the Ukainian army will be prepared to die and be maimed in large numbers and the general population bear hardship and the more or less forecful conscription of their menfolk. Personally I doubt either of these will be the case.
In the face of an implacable Russia who if anything have expanded their original war aims, Ukraine and Europe now face the bad choice of conceding now, or conceding later but with a worse outcome. This was Hesgeth's message.
This situation is unlikely I think to have what we call in the insolvency business a "soft landing" where a controlled failure is managed. It looks to me that once the military stop fighting and the public react against the war, Ukraine will unravel quickly and in ways that are to an extent unpredictable. In effect Ukraine might cease to even be a nation at all, with some form of partition and with Russia taking the lion's share. Russia will not want a failed state on its border, or at least one it cannot control. Many were surprised by how quickly Syria collapsed (or Afghanistan or Vietnam in 1975). Well we might see a similar thing in Ukraine.
There is no good outcome for Ukraine now, and IMO the longer European leaders pretend that this is possible, the worse the situation will be for the poor people of Ukraine. And in doing so they run the risk of millions of new refugees along with a crime wave caused by embittered and brutalised ex-soldiers who will be well armed. And let's not even talk about all those "loans" which will never be repaid. European leaders blindly followed the USA down the primrose path and alas it will be the people of Europe who will suffer.
Over this entire period, you have been an unerring source of information, realism and integrity. We who have learned from you, owe you a great debt of gratitude