Diplomacy at an Impasse, Trump Escalates Actions Against Russia and Iran
Chas Freeman & Glenn Diesen
Trump’s negotiation tactic tends to be grand statements to disrupt the status quo and open up some space to manoeuvre, followed by maximum pressure before striking a deal. However, the world of politics is different from the world of real estate as it can fuel unpredictability and distrust. Most importantly, Russia believes it is facing an existential threat from NATO and Iran similarly cannot negotiate away its deterrent as it it frequently threatened by the US and Israel. What will Trump do when his negotiation tactics fail? At the moment, we are seeing escalations against both Russia and Iran.
Ambassador Freeman is a career diplomat (retired) who was Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94, earning the highest public service awards of the Department of Defense for his roles in designing a NATO-centered post-Cold War European security system and in reestablishing defense and military relations with China. He served as U. S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (during operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm).
It's safer to follow the line of least resistance, especially when throughout your entire life you have been persuaded that your leaders are, if not entirely to be trusted, that it doesn't trouble the conscience, to accept the status quo. It takes a deal of courage to challenge such powerful forces, not to mention knowledge and critical faculties. It's also easier for those of us who have challenged the status quo, to condemn those who haven't. It seems that humility is one of those faculties that's in short supply.
It is my conviction, that the Europeans are still fully beholden to the US. They are now even cheerfully increasing their military spending to 2% and more. I would not be too worried about the soundtrack. Practically all European leaders, including opposition leaders, have been carefully selected by the US, probably by its expression of the "deep state", and accordingly, they have always been highly loyal to Democratic presidents, and vocally critical about Republicans - at least since Reagan.
Scott Ritter expressed, that he thinks it is not unlikely that the US will sort out the issues with Iran with a nuclear bomb, and I agree it would be befitting the flashy style of Trump. And I don't exclude, that Trump never really had a sincere interest in coming to an agreement with Russia; he and his team would not have handled the contacts that stupidly.
Interesting: Germany's Merz has a "distrust" of 70%, even before he starts his chancellorship ( https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_100660870/umfrage-union-nur-noch-einen-prozent-vor-der-afd.html ). Par for the course of these western heads of government who have completely divorced themselves from the will of their peoples.