Col. Jacques Baud: Russia Pursues Military Solution as Diplomacy Fails
Colonel Jacques Baud is a former military intelligence analyst in the Swiss Army and the author of many books. Colonel Baud argues that American indecisiveness and European irrationality have undermined negotiations, and Russia is now convinced it must pursue a military solution.
Excellent from Baud (shouldn't his name be pronounced like French 'beau' rather than rhyming with Al Saud?)
Neau? Naud?
I agree with his entire hour-long analysis.
What is shocking – or should be – is the 2019 clip of Arestovich, about 4 minutes into the video, openly stating that war with Russia is inevitable within a couple of years, so 2021 or 2022. He says it with such certainty that I am left with no conclusion other than that Ukraine (in coordination with NATO) planned it all along, indeed Arestovich openly admits that war with Russia is the price Ukraine will have to pay in order to join NATO.
In other words, Ukraine, under the 'leadership' of The Ewok, who we are regularly reminded was democratically voted into office on a peace mandate, knew war with Russia would occur within a year or two of 2019, but did nothing to avoid it, indeed continued to actively pursue such a war. The so-called 'Russian aggresion' is exposed as a lie.
I think Baud's prediction of how this all plays out is bang on the money. Everyone has boxed themselves in: Ukraine, Russia, the uncollective West, such that it seems incredibly unlikely that this will end in anything other than a Russian military victory, and the only unknown is the scale.
Russia is now steadily advancing, a few villages a day rather than one a week. Sooner or later that all adds up. Ukraine seems to be in a position of barely-managed retreat in some areas. But not at such a rate/scale that it causes a political crisis in Kiev. Ukraine will not concede defeat until a trigger point, which I believe will come before Baud's suggestion of Odessa. I do think it will be loss of a major city; just not Odessa. So Kharkhov, or Dnepropetrovsk.
But first Russia needs to take the whole of Donetsk, which won't happen before Christmas. Konstantinovka is doomed, but unless the Ukrainian collapse accelerates, I don't see the Russians in Slavyansk before Santa. The geography is bad for an attack from the northeast, so without Seversk falling, Russia will likely need to go the long way round, just steadily pulverising its way up from the south through Konstantinovka Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk, to Slavyansk.
I continue to think the likeliest end to all this is for Russia to simply decide enough is enough. Having outlined the likely trigger for Ukraine to concede defeat, the loss of a major city like Kharkhov or Dnepropetrovsk, I don't have the sense that the Russian military is capable of taking either; not without an absolute disintegration of Ukraine's managed defence.
More likely Russia will be able to achieve its goals before they even get to the point of thinking about Kharkhov or Dnepropetrovsk. Donetsk will be taken in its entirety. Some degree of buffer zone territory will be taken along the northern borders. What will be harder to achieve is taking all of Zapo up to the Dnepr. That's going to require some critical weakening of Ukraine's forces.
Putin has boxed himself in with west bank Kherson though. I imagine some in the Russian military might counsel Putin to cede it in a final settlement, regardless of the new constitution.
If the Russians are forced to cross the Dnepr to take Kherson city, I would expect them to keep going towards Nikolaev and then Odessa. It's not worth crossing the Dnepr just for Kherson city. Russia has done that once already and had to retreat again. They won't want a repeat of that.
In 2026, having seized most of the territory of the four oblasts (LPR, DPR, Zapo, Kherson), Russia will likely indicate through American back channels that they are willing to negotiate a final settlement, including Ukraine ceding Kherson city, avoiding needing to take it by force.
When the wrongdoers refuse to admit wrongdoings, there will be consequences for the wrongdoers which are the west.