A Major War in the Middle East is Inevitable

The overthrow of Assad in Syria by Israeli/Western-backed jihadists has set in place developments that will most likely result in a major war in the Middle East. While the media celebrates that “freedom” and “peace” have arrived in Syria, the reality is that the regional balance of power has unravelled. Former allies will eventually turn on each other, new partnerships will be formed, and wars will be fought to restore a new balance of power.

The Palestinian Question

The main source of the conflict is Israel’s rejection of a Palestinian state, and Israel’s subsequent demand to rule over more than 7 million Palestinians. Israel also rejects granting Palestinians equal rights within a Greater Israel as the Palestinians make up about half the population and it would thus undermine the foundation of a Jewish ethno-state. This leaves only two options – apartheid or ethnic cleansing. Israel has pursued a combination of the two as Palestinians must live under a different set of rules in an apartheid system, while incrementally being pushed off their land. After October 7 2023, Israel added genocide to resolve the Palestinian question.

When the Palestinians resist occupation, it is labelled terrorism and thus legitimises apartheid policies and ethnic cleansing. Palestinian terror does occur as evident on 7 October 2023, although all rights for self-defence and resistance have been criminalised. The US ensures military support and political cover for the incremental destruction of Palestine.

Neighbouring countries that support Palestinian resistance are targeted for regime change by Israel and the US under the guise of fighting terror and rogue regimes, removing weapons of mass destruction, or defending human rights and democracy. Each pocket of resistance in the region can be eliminated separately if the main actors remain divided. Netanyahu deliberately allowed the strengthening of Hamas to divide the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, which has prevented the establishment of a common Palestinian state.

Syria has been a key actor in the resistance and the former balance of power. The remaining resistance to Israel has consisted of Iran, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Hamas. Syria is the bridge between Iran and its allies, and it has accommodated Russian military bases.

The US upholds tensions between the Arab states and Iran to ensure that US security dependence and hostility towards Iran are prioritised above solidarity with the Palestinians. The governments in places like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt express sympathy for the Palestinians and use strong language against Israel to placate their enraged public, although deeds will not match their words. The balance of power has now unravelled.

Chaos After the Destruction of Syria

The defeat of Assad removes an important adversary of Israel. Yet, it also undermines the foundation for the solidarity of the anti-Assad alliance as Turkey, jihadists such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Israel and the US will all seek to dominate post-Assad Syria. Israel will seek to seize more territory, constrain HTS, and limit the influence of Turkey. The US will want to maintain their control over Syria’s natural resources as a source of revenue and influence, convince HTS to accommodate the Kurds, and to expel Russia from its military bases in Syria. Turkey will seek to assert greater influence over Syria, push Israel back from Syrian territory, and eliminate any threats from Syrian Kurds. HTS will eliminate minorities and the opposition to consolidate power within Syria, and thereafter they will likely change their approach to external powers.

A new balance of power will likely be shaped through war. The Kurds will seek to maintain some autonomy, although HTS and Turkey will likely counter such ambitions. American and Turkish proxies are already fighting each other, which could spiral out of control. Russia will reduce its presence at its military bases in Syria to reduce risks to its assets, yet will negotiate with the new authorities in Damascus to preserve its military bases. HTS has so far not responded to the attacks by Israel, although the shared hatred of Iran and Hezbollah is unlikely to be enough to maintain the partnership over the long term.

The destruction of an independent Syria also enables Israel and the US to sever Iran’s physical transportation corridor to support Hezbollah and Hamas. Lebanon can now be strangled, and the destruction of Palestine will continue with significantly less resistance. Will the Arab governments in the region still be as obedient to Washington after Iran’s influence has been diminished, and how will they seek to expand their influence in the current power vacuum?

Without reliable support from Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel will also be in a better position to attack Iran. Immediately after the collapse of the collapse of Assad’s government, Israel took advantage by destroying the majority of Syria’s air defence systems and conquering large swaths of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights. Israel is likely already planning an attack on Iran through Syrian territory and there will be great efforts to pull the US into a war against Iran. We can expect more fake and frantic stories in the media about Iranian aggression against the US, and the Israeli lobby will demand that the US participate in a military strike on Iran. With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah as important allies, and faced with an emboldened Israel, Iran may feel compelled to acquire a nuclear deterrent. A wider new Cold War, Iran’s partnership with Russia and China, Israel’s expansionist impulses, rapidly developing technologies, Yemen’s growing assertiveness, Erdogan’s deceitfulness, growing anger about the genocide in Palestine, and other uncertain variables will make it difficult to predict what will happen in the weeks to come. The regional balance of power has been disrupted, and there are few peaceful paths to a new status quo.

The Coming Wars and the Narrative-Driven Media

Western propaganda consistently presents all conflicts in the world as a struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarianism. Simplifying and dumbing down the complexities of world events to a conflict between good and evil is effective in manufacturing consent and purging dissent. However, the media does not explain why the public should celebrate a terrorist group led by a former al-Quaeda leader taking control over Syria. The media also struggles to explain why Israel is responding to the “liberation” of Syria by bombing its military capabilities and seizing its territory. The efforts to whitewash HTS as moderate rebels that embrace diversity will likely be short-lived as minorities will be cleansed and the regional situation will unravel. The silence and support of the genocide in Palestine and the destruction of Lebanon has already discredited the political-media elites. There is hardly anyone outside the media who takes Washington seriously as it proclaims to push for a ceasefire while supplying weapons. When stability across the Middle East collapses, so will the trust in our politicians and media also continue its rapid decline.

[Many thanks to Matthew Alford for the audio reading of this article.]